# Sports betting, math, probabilities, …

## Why an additional website ?

A sports bet aim at trying to predict the outcome of a future sporting event and betting against another player (usually the bookmaker) on a this outcome. If this pronostic actually occurs, he earn a profit, defined in advance between the two players, while if he loses, the second player (the bookmaker) keeps the entire stake. The event being uncertain (no one reads the future with certainty), he can be treated exclusively as a random event (like the toss of a coin or a die) and mathematical calculations of probability are the main and fundamental theoretical study tool.

Furthermore, the event is also human: it is a sporting event with characteristics, a history, ... and therefore much more than a simple coin or a simple die that we throw "at random". Thus, expert knowledge of the sport in question and its history can provide solid predictions on the outcome of an event (even if chance always rears its ugly head, and does not hesitate to reverse the safest situations...)

The real new question behind sports betting then becomes: how to combine math elements, calculations and probability theory with specific sports knowledge and predictions to ensure gains, or even increase and maximize them ?

## Already many sites, but few with actual details and mathematical proofs

Websites on sports betting abound, without even mentioning the pages on the subject directly published by those most concerned: the bookmakers. The latter produce numerous tutorials, explanations, courses, etc. to explain how to win, that is to say they explain, in a way, how to make them lose (what a bettor wins, the bookie does not …).Between a mixture of fuzzy probability theory, mathematical theory with multiple and complex calculations and the complexity of the sport itself, its history, many are tempted to make this seemingly easy and accessible by making numerous simplistic shortcuts (but correct anyway ? or false ? or not always accurate ? … )

Thus, there are many sites giving more or less clever, more or less miracle recipes, but it is clear that:

- real explanations are rare. A most typical example and yet also the most fundamental: everyone says that odds are the reciprocal of probability... sure, but who decided that?

The probability that a team or a player will win is complex to imagine and calculate, while it is the bookmaker who sets, that is to say chooses, the odds. Why would he use this formula ?? And if not ?

And, even without going as far as a purist desire to understand everything: what consequence(s) does this simple relationship have when I bet?

A second example: accumulator bets are known, even renowned, to be risky. However, if we win, we win (much) more. So how do we count this: winning more, but less often: is it ultimately worth it? There's not much of an answer to this question either. - Many websites give an example of calculation to explain: for example, in a surebet situation you have to bet this on the 1st result and this calculation (why?) says that you have to bet this on the 2nd.

**Just one**example is not necessarily convincing and above all, does not provide the tools to adapt to all situations.

- foolproof method to win every time
- Method to win against the bookmaker
- the 5 best methods to win
- the 10 best methods to win
- get rich quickly with sports betting
- living off your sports betting winnings is easy
- …

- scientific method to win every time
- statistics and sports betting: what method to win
- mathematical calculations for sports betting
- scientific method living winnings in sports betting
- What techniques to win at sports betting? 10 tips
- …

- "The secret method to winning at sports betting"
- "The incredible tip for winning xxx euros in sports betting !"

What is clearly missing, and this is the ambition of this "Math Bet" website, is to detail the underlying mathematical calculations in order to better understand the mechanisms and phenomena. In the articles of this website,

**all**math calculations are explicitly detailled, with algebraic proof for general cases, along with concrete examples to better understand the principles.

Firstly, to understand the relationship between probability and odds, which are certainly the reciprocal of each other, but why, and above all what are the practical consequences for the bettor.

Then will come the sure-bet and value-bet, then the different formulas and strategies for betting.

Some fundamental mathematical tools are detailed separately: mathematical expectation and standard deviation mainly.

Armed with these mathematical tools, we will be able to study the interest, or not, of different betting strategies: for example, do they really increase the chances of winning?

## Mathematics? too much math!?

Finally, for those who would reply that it is unthinkable to start doing math, that the formulas are far too complicated, ... I would just use the comparison, after having already detailed a little the fact that the mathematical elements are basic and fundamentals tools with probability and theoretical calculations:the mathematics of betting (sports or not) is comparable to running in many sports: it is not because you run very well that you will be good at this or that sport; on the other hand it is clearly illusory to progress in a sport for someone who refuses to move, to run...

Likewise, we do not necessarily start running (and effectively) overnight, it can take time; Likewise, you don't necessarily understand everything about calculations the first time, it can take time, you have to come back to it too...

But, for sure, to progress in sports betting, that is to increase winnings and in the long term, some math understandings are required. Here we are, and this website is totally devoted to that part of mathematics.

Read also: