# Risky bets and bankroll management

## A global strategy: diversify your strategies!

Betting, playing, betting and finally winning cannot be done without reflection and therefore an overall strategy. Without any particular thought or strategy, we have seen that the probabilities (calculated and used by professionals: bookmakers and other teams of data-analysts) are calculated and provided in such a way that the winnings are zero, minus the margin of the pros intermediaries precisely.

Whether it is investments in stocks on the stock market, or sports betting, the principle is ultimately the same: place risky bets, evaluating the risk/gain/bet weight.

## Evaluation of gain/bet/risk weights

If you want to progress and develop a winning strategy, you cannot just talk about gain and risk: you must**calculate these quantitatively**in order to be able to compare bets, decide whether to bet or not, calculate correct wagers, predict bad moves (which will no longer be bad), ...

In summary two things:

**secure your bets and optimize your strategy**.

The essential mathematical tools are

- mathematical expectation: if this expected value is negative, the bet is not worth the effort and you should not insist (would you bet on the following game: you bet 10 euros on Heads or Tails, Tails you win 1 cent and face you lose 20 euros?? that's rude, but when it's less, that is math expectation that shows it).
- the standard deviation: this is the risk estimate. By repeating risky bets we must expect to win sometimes, lose sometimes, a few standard deviations: if the standard deviation is 10 euros, I could not rail against a bad run which makes me lose around thirty euros ( but I can expect to also earn around thirty euros).

My bankroll must therefore always be capable of supporting several standard deviations of losses: this is a fundamental point in bankroll management. - Management is also done over the long term. The calculation of return is then essential: ROC is the math indicator of a good overall strategy.

In order to live from your earnings, the ROC is the essential indicator, and a fundamental goal is to be able to maintain it constant month after month, see this page about "making a living form sports betting".

## Betting taxonomie

We can still categorize investments, or bets, into- high potential / large standard deviation: bets that can pay off big, but are very unsure (parlay/accumulator bets for example)
- very safe bet / very low return: in sports betting with very small odds.
- risky bets: high odds, but in which a value bet was detected
- mathematically secure: bets using a strategy which allows the risk to be amortized ( double chance , secure multiple , etc.)
- fun bets, fun bets, without having thought about a potential value bet - in short, not very reasonable bets

## Diversify your bets, your strategies

You must use all these forms of bets, excessively limiting those in the last point of course. In finance, we talk about **portfolio management** and **diversifying your portfolio**.

A typical example of portfolio management: on the one hand very safe and very unprofitable fundamental investments, but the income from which is reinvested in riskier operations which allow significant gains. We thus have a way of **investing in risky bets without taking any risk** (since the money then invested comes from previous winnings and not directly from my portfolio).

This global strategy allows you to invest, to bet, without taking any risk while keeping a part of the game and a possibility of winning significant sums at times. Skills required are

- A need for rigor:
**you must respect the plan**, and not change “instinctively” at times - A need for discipline: it is necessary to keep up-to-date accounts, and re-calculate the stakes to invest gradually, based on previous results

In your wallet, or your bankroll for sports bettors, you must

- limit the size of your bets: a black streak is coming, that's a fact, and it doesn't matter if we can recover from it. If we bet, for example, 20% of our bankroll per bet, a black streak of 5 defeats will ruin us: we might as well say right away that with such bets, it is certain, we will be ruined.

Here, Kelly criterion formula yields a good idea of what is a correct wager. - use a significant volume of bets on safe bets, even with low odds and therefore low winnings. These small gains must be used to ensure the following compartment:
- use a small part of your fund (1% for example) for high-yield bets, with high odds. With these bets: you have fun, you don't risk much because the bets necessarily come from previous winnings, and there we can win big.
- Re-evaluate each size (number of simultaneous bets, stake sizes, etc.) according to variations in your bankroll.

## An example of management

For example, let's say with a bankroll of 100 euros (or investment fund in finance).We must diversify between

- very low risk bets, with low gains of course, but with the only rule: "winning is not losing". Even if a win is small, it's a win.
- assured bets: like a martingale, by calculating in advance that we will have enough funds to be sure and above all not stopping the martingale along the way
- riskier bets: to have fun, to try to win bigger, because it is about your favorite team or player

On a fixed date, for example at the start of each month, we evaluate our bankroll and, if our strategy has worked well (thanks to ROC calculation), we keep it by just increasing each bet proportionally.

The longer-term goal is to find an overall winning strategy, even if only slightly, with an ROC of a few percent (even just 10% will do the trick). Then, while maintaining this return which we refine but above all which does not decrease, we increase the bets accordingly, fed by our previous winnings, until our 5%, applied to sufficiently large bets, also become sufficiently important.

We therefore have a "snowball" strategy: we implement a low-risk strategy because with small bets, then by ensuring gains (low at the beginning) we gradually increase the bets, which will give slightly larger gains, which will again feed future bets... Mathematically, this way, the bankroll increases exponentially.

All this is still a bit theoretical, of course. See then the concrete and quantified example of management to achieve a significant net gain every month and, to adapt it to your motivation, the Simulator: month after month, of the evolution of the bankroll.