Draw no bet or refunded if betting strategy

What is a draw no bet or refunded if betting strategy

Draw no bet means you wager on one team to win a match, but your stake is refunded if it ends in a draw. This works as a kind of insurance, or a way to secure your bet, decreasing clearly chance of loss.

A Draw no bet (DNB) or "Refunded if" type bet makes it possible to mathematically secure a bet by betting on two outcomes in such a way that one of the two is a winner and in the other, and worst case, your stake is refunded: no winnings in this second case certainly, but no loss either in the event of a hard blow !
Typically, in a soccer match where you predict a sure winning team you can protect your backs with a refund bet if there is a draw, that is also a draw no bet: if your team wins, you normally earn a profit according to the offered odds and on the other hand if the match ends in a draw you ensure to receive your stake back. On the other hand, one must not forget that a loss case remains, when your team loses purely and simply.
A "Refunded if" bet can of course be adapted to any outcomes, for example betting on the victory of a team and refund if it loses.

In this section, you can find the mathematical proof of the "Refunded if" or DNB method, leading to the exact and optimal bets. An automatic calculator, online and free, is also proposed here to automatically calculate exact and optimal bets.

The Draw no bet, or "Refunded if", formula is not always offered by bookmakers, but it can be implemented quite simply by any bettor who decides to do so. As with surebet (which is unlikely to be offered by any bookmaker !), you can learn here how this betting strategy works. All math calculation are developed in order to a better comprehension of the mathematical mechanism.
Let's begin with the calculator inside which you can fill in both odds and then get back exact bet values.

Refunded if, or Draw no bet, calculator

Distribution of stakes

Net profit for winning odds:
Odds obtained:

Details of calculations: math !

We are focusing on an event with more than two outcomes (a 3way event for example, like soccer) in which I will bet two bets on two different outcomes:

a winning bet with odds of c_g, and on which I bet the stakes m_g
the bet to be refunded with odds of c_r, and on which I bet the stakes m_r

The total stake on this event is then m_t = m_g + m_r. At the end of the event, I then face the alternative:

Victory on winning odds: I then earn the net profit
G = m_g×c_g − m_t
which is of course lower than if I had bet only on this outcome.
The odds associated with this victory are then of course lower than the initial winning odds and are calculated according to the formula:
c = G/m_t
Victory on Refunded if odds:. In this case I simply want to get my stake back, therefore
G_r = m_r×c_r − m_t = 0
that is
m_r = m_t/c_r

Mathematically and manually calculate stakes for a Refunded if bet: an example

One can simply calculate the stakes for a Refunded if bet, using the previous mathematical formulas.

Calculation of the bets distribution according to the odds

For example (default values of the calculator above), with odds and bet:

odds of the outcome on which I which to win: 1,9
odds of the outcome on which I which to receive my stake back (refunded if): 4
total stake I want to wager: 100 euros

To get my 100 euros refunded with odds of 4, I have to bet m_r = 100/25 = 25.
Among these 100 euros, there remains m_g = 100 - 25 = 75 euros to bet with the winning odds of 1,9.

Profit and new winning odds

With these calculated values,

if I win on the refunded if outcome, I earn 25×4 = 100 euros, that is my invested stake and I therefore reimburse myself
if I win on the winning odds, I earn 75×1,9 = 142,5 euros, that is 42,5 euros net profit.
The odds of this bet are therefore no longer 1.9, because I actually bet 100 euros in total, but of c = 142,5/100 = 1,425.
The actual odds are now lower, however my bet is now secured by saving a possible loss on an outcome.

How does the calculator Refunded if, or Draw no bet, work ?

The Refunded if calculator for bets and odds is a very simple tool: you just need to fill in the odds (winning or to be refunded) and/or stakes (total or winning or to be refunded) and all the other fields are calculated and updated automatically .

Increasing the bookmaker's odds

Some websites and bookmakers already offer bets with the Refunded if option, or "Draw no bet" (formula such as "Who will win the match? (refunded if draw)" ). Nothing is free... and in general bookmakers take advantage of this opportunity to undervalue the overall odds obtained and increase some more their margin. Thus, the bookmaker takes a margin on all odds and an additional margin in these ready-made "Refunded if bet" offers.
So many reasons to well understand underlying math formulas and to do the calculations by yourself, by hand or using the calculator on this page, so as to avoid this last odds drop.